Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has expressed his willingness to visit Moscow for Russia’s next Victory Day parade, even though he is the democratically elected leader of an EU and Nato member state.
This move legitimizes Putin’s efforts to redraw the map of Europe by force, as “realpolitik” is eating away at pro-Ukrainian solidarity in Europe.
Winter is coming, and with it an annual uptick in demand for gas. Western military aid to Ukraine is shrinking despite promises of support for “as long as it takes.” The continent is bracing for the possibility of Trump 2.0.
Putin has used fossil fuels, weapons, and mass misinformation to rebuild a Russian sphere of influence 35 years after the end of the Cold War.
He has condemned 14 states, including former Soviet republics, for joining Nato, using a combination of hybrid and real warfare to create chaos in the heart of Europe but also a de facto security belt for post-Soviet Russia.
In Belarus, Russia has created a client state with no agency, allowing Russian troops to use its territory to attack Kyiv and Chernihiv in 2022 and still lets Russian jets use its airfields to target Ukrainian infrastructure far from the frontline.
In Central Europe, Hungarian and Slovakian dependence on Russian oil and gas and their leaders’ open pro-Putin sympathies outweigh in geopolitical significance any democratic values acquired with EU membership.
In the Caucasus, if opposition protests in Tbilisi fail, Georgian Dream will form a new parliamentary majority.
Russia supports Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict against Azerbaijan – but keeps business ties with Azerbaijan for gas re-exports to Slovakia and Hungary.
In the Far East, Putin reaffirmed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” between Russia and North Korea, sending missiles and soldiers to Russia for its war on Ukraine.
The Pentagon said 8,000 North Korean troops were already in western Russia and expected to see action attempting to recapture parts of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces; in exchange for Russian oil to North Korea.
Also If Trump wins next week, the US would focus mostly on the Asia-Pacific area, leaving Europe to face Russia and its allies alone. Some EU leaders may believe Putin would never enter a Nato border. Fico, for one, is taking no chances.