The parties’ manifestos, including the contract Reform UK, and Labour, have been released, and the campaigns are entering the final straight.
However, many of the numbers floating around are close to useless, particularly regarding the next government’s spending plans on public services.
The NHS is the largest public service often gets the most attention, with the Conservative Party and Labour Party promising to spend an additional £1.2 billion on the NHS in 2024-6, and an additional £1.8 billion 2026-2028.
Some smaller parties proffer bigger numbers, such as the Lib Dems, which propose spending an additional £8.35 billion in 2028-29 to “end the crisis in the NHS and social care.”
The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimate that to meet the plan could require real spending increases of 3.6 per cent a year
Reform UK makes pledges to the NHS that it costs an additional £17 billion a year and suggests that it would be enough to allow us to “enjoy zero waiting lists”. Unfortunately, even if it were achievable, it would certainly cost more than £17 billion a year.
The Green Party manifesto has a range of pledges to improve the NHS, arguing that these would require an additional £28 billion in 2030, alongside another £20 billion of additional capital spending over the parliament on top of that.
The lack of a current plan for department-by-department spending, or a baseline, really matters. The present health and social care budget is £192 billion, with the Conservatives’ pledge coming to 0.5% of what we currently spend and Labour’s 0.9%.
The next government will not keep the budget fixed at £192 billion in cash terms, as the NHS’s first-ever long-term workforce plan, published last year, sets out the big growth in staff numbers that the NHS needs over the next decade to meet the challenges it faces.
To meet the plan, real spending increases of 3.6% a year could be required, which could be around £50 billion.
The Conservative Party and Labour Party manifestos seem to be up for sticking with the NHS long-term workforce plan, even if they do not yet want to fess up about the cost and implications for less fortunate departments in the forthcoming spending review.
By the end of the parliament, spending on the NHS is likely to have risen by much more than the “additional” amount in the winning party’s election manifesto.
